Breaking the Vimes Boot Cycle: How can the Upcoming Spending Review improve outcomes and reduce costs?
As the government sets its budgets for the coming years, they must recognise that the cost of not getting it right first time for babies, children and young people is far too high. Despite budgetary pressure, they must take a long-term view and make early intervention support for children a top priority.
A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two…cost about ten dollars. … A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that’d still be keeping his feet dry in ten years’ time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet*.
This theory, set out by the character Sam Vimes in Terry Pratchett’s novel Men at Arms in 1993, is often cited as a way to explain the pressures faced by low-income families, known as the Poverty Premium. Spending the bare minimum to get by; cheap poor quality goods that do the job for today, costing more in the long run.
Public Services are falling victim to the Poverty Premium
But we can also apply this analogy to systems and services. In recent years, budget pressure has resulted in many of our public services only focusing on meeting immediate and acute needs. But the evidence now clearly shows this has actually resulted in government departments and local authorities spending more, not less, whilst outcomes for children have become worse.
Investing in the next generation is critical
On the most fundamental level, not investing in babies, children and young people is the ultimate false economy, with the potential for lifelong impact to the lives, health and happiness of those children.
When this lack of investment has a discernible impact on such a significant proportion of all children in the country – 30% growing up in poverty, 20% struggling with their mental health, 7% missing a significant chunk of their education – the long-term societal impact will be enormous.
Austerity has led to Local Authorities spending more, not less
In spending terms, it is clear that cutting investment in prevention and early intervention is a false economy.
Driven by austerity, between 2010 and 2019 Local Authorities in the North East cut their Children’s Services budgets in real terms by a third**.
With statutory duties to keep the most vulnerable children safe rightly robust, the only place many authorities could make ‘savings’ was to scale back the early intervention support they could offer to struggling families.
In 2022, the Children’s Social Care Review found overwhelmingly that families in contact with social services felt they were being assessed and monitored, but not getting the support they needed.
And analysis by Pro-Bono Economics published in 2024 found that between 2010-11 and 2022-23, spending on early interventions fell by 44%, and now accounts for less than one-fifth of total spending on children’s services.
The result of these cuts is that the number of children in care is at a record high in our region and local authorities’ spending on residential care placements has snowballed, with overall spending now higher than it was in 2010. They are spending a fortune yet more children are suffering with the impact of neglect, trauma and disruption. Their feet are well and truly wet.
The social and financial cost of poor outcomes for young people is enormous
We have seen similar patterns in other services and support that give babies, children and young people the opportunity to thrive.
It is not surprising that in the same period Local Authority spending on youth work fell by over 70%, the number of children struggling with their mental health has almost doubled. This is putting pressure on health systems, contributing to increased school absence and driving an increase in worklessness among young adults.
It’s clear from our frontline work, and backed up by the data, that if we don’t invest in prevention and early intervention work with babies, children, young people and their families – across health, education, social care and youth work – we will continue to see more and more of them struggling. These struggles can escalate into greater and more complex needs, which are more expensive to address, and lead to needless suffering and lost potential. The social and financial cost is huge.
The spending review needs to put an end to underinvestment in children
We’re urging the new government to commit to breaking the cycle of underinvestment which creates higher financial and social costs further down the line.
We want them to deliver on their promises to tackle the youth mental health crisis, giving all young people access to the support they need when they need it, through access to early intervention support in every school and every community. We also want a reinvestment in youth work to create places to go and things to do, accessible to all young people, all year round.
We’re waiting to see how the promised transformation of Children’s Social Care will materialise, to support children and families to reverse the trend on children entering the care system and give families the support they need to thrive. We want early intervention, through Family Hubs and Start for Life services to continue to be a core pillar of this, and for it to be properly resourced nationally. We also want intensive support to be available to families when they need it, to keep families together and help them flourish.
We’re also looking towards the pledged reform of the SEND education system, to ensure young people with additional needs and neurodivergence can get the education they are entitled to, in safe, inclusive environments.
Prevention should be the bedrock of our services
At the heart of this is the need to view prevention and early intervention as the bedrock of our public services, not a ‘nice to have’. Phase two of the spending review is being billed as a resetting of the way public services budgets are created. It is critical that this delivers a funding model that moves beyond the Vimes Boots spiral of poor outcomes and high spend, and gives all babies, children and families the chance to thrive.
References:
* Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms, 1993
**The Northern Echo – Children’s services funding cut by a third in North-East
